Indodian.com – Saat ini media-media nasional berlomba-lomba merilis survei elektabilitas bakal calon presiden. Namun, keakuratan hasil penelitian lembaga survei elektabilitas menjelang pemilu bukanlah suatu tolok ukur bagi pasangan calon untuk meraih kemenangan dalam pemilu. Pilihan politik pemilih masih menyisahkan pertimbangan antara rasionalitas dan sentimentalitas. Hal ini bisa dilihat berdasarkan hasil survei elektabilias menjelang pemilu dan jumlah suara pascapemilu.
Ada beberapa analisis yang mampu dijelaskan di sini. Pertama, ada kemungkinan bahwa lembaga survei gagal memahami aspirasi pemilih. Para responden memberi jawaban tidak sesuai dengan pilihan politik mereka. Hal ini tentunya dapat dibenarkan mengingat jumlah pemilih yang belum menentukan sikap relatif kecil. Hampir sebagian besar pemilih telah menyatakan bahwa pilihan mereka tidak dapat diragukan lagi. Tetapi faktanya ada perbedaan antara hasil survei elektabilitas dan hasil pemilu. Kedua, komodifikasi politik identitas. Sejumlah mesin parpol dan invisible hand dalam analisis Adam Smith bekerja ekstra keras untuk mendongkrak pilihan politik rakyat menjelang pemilu.
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Tampaknya politik identitas memiliki peran yang tidak kecil dalam pemilihan Presiden April 2024 mendatang. Politik identitas menjadi komoditas yang menarik dalam mendulang simpati publik. Penulis kemudian mencoba mengontemplasikan fenomena politik identitas tersebut dalam hubungan dengan demokrasi di Indonesia.
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